Friday, September 04, 2009

Who will be left standing in Eurabia?


Some observers think that Europe is destined for civil war as Muslim birth rates (immigration is only the rocket launcher; fecundity is the fuel) bring Islam into majority or near-majority status. At that point, the theory is, the indigenes will suddenly realize that their backs are to the wall, their governments have sold them out, and their only choice is fighting or dhimmitude.

What seems to me more likely is that Europe will be divided between Muslim and decidedly non-Muslim countries in close, uncomfortable proximity; not unlike communist and capitalist (or democratic socialist) countries in the Cold War. EU or no EU, Europe is anything but united at any level other than the international cadre of professional politicians. European tribes and nations have had all the years since the break-up of the western Roman Empire to learn to dislike one another. And that's only when they weren't trying to rip each other's lungs out, which happened as recently as the cataclysm that began 70 years ago. Some people alive today can remember it. Europe won't "fall." It will fracture.

There's no way to know for sure, obviously, but it's interesting to speculate on which European states will wind up on which side of the Muslim-non-Muslim split by, let's say, 2025. Based on current trends, my guess would be that the teams will look something like this:


Sweden, Norway, Belgium, the Netherlands: How can you doubt it?

Britain, France, Spain: Not as certain, but considering their track record to date, they'll go along to get along. Britain in particular has created a society of government dependents I can't imagine fighting for anything. They'll grumble, but do what they're told.

Defiantly Non-Muslim

Italy: Knowing what I know of Italians, they'll take a stand and win. They gave Savonarola about three years, if I recall my Renaissance history, before they tired of the bonfire of the vanities. Even their own home-grown fascist Duce couldn't make them trade la dolce vita for efficiency. Italy is the only country in Europe making a serious effort to deport illegal immigrants. I don't think they're about to let a bunch of imams drape their women in black tents.

Denmark: My money is on this feisty little country, even when the EU does everything possible to sell it down the river.

Former Russian-satellite countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, et al.): They remember only too well what a grim totalitarian state feels like. They're not about to return to one.

Greece: Been there, done that. Greeks have a strong historical memory. The Turks were yesterday, Alkibiades was last week to them. Greece will become Muslim when snakes play soccer.

Iffy, could go either way

Finland: Doesn't seem to be quite the pushover that its Scandinavian neighbors are, but symptoms of dhimmi behavior are appearing.

Ireland: Hard to imagine Ireland as Muslim, but its political class has taken their tone from their British counterparts.

Scotland (which is almost certainly destined for independence from the U.K.): Another flaccid welfare state, but may still have some red corpuscles.

Switzerland: Too busy counting their money to be bothered about population replacement?

If you have a different prediction, I'd be happy for you to comment.



MaryJ said...

Sweden,yes. But not Norway. Their resistance party led by Carl I. Hagen is growing in power and influence. Holland will be split into a Muslim and Non-Muslim state. The non-Muslim state will probably combine with their linguistic brothers the Flemands when Belgium breaks up. The problem will be that the Muslim parts of Europe will be Third World toilets, because Muslims can't create anything else. Then the whole mass immigration problem will start up again.

Rick Darby said...


Thanks for commenting. You're more au courant with Norway than I am.

Once the lines are drawn, I imagine non-Muslim countries would crack down hard on immigration. The multi-culti paradigm will break down and rejection of Muslim immigration will be seen as a matter of survival.

Jack said...

What about Belgium? Flanders is showing some signs of life. Isn't there a nascent secession movement?

Craig said...

Ireland: Hard to imagine Ireland as Muslim, but its political class has taken their tone from their British counterparts.

Speaking as an Irish citizen with a keen interest in national, European and world affairs, I fear you might be right. Our government plays the immigration card occasionally to be "populist" and win some votes from the many people disgruntled with immigration, but they never really mean it.

When the chips are down, they always surrender control over our national borders and sovereignty to the foreigner... whether that foreigner is an EU bureaucrat or a recently arrived asylum seeker given a new apartment for free!

Mick said...

I'm surprised with you choice for the Swiss. A country in which joining UN was so controversial that they waited till 2002, a country that has zero intention to join UESSR, could not be all bad.

A country where every male serves in army and every male keeps his military issue rifle, that country might not so easy to crack.

As far as I know Swiss Cantons have more rights then the American states, there is no question that in case of Muslim threat some Cantons would introduce their own immigration policy bunning Muslims from residency.

Leos Tomicek said...

The thing with the former Soviet bloc is that they have no money to accommodate the immigrants and therefore draw only those that are in some way economically active and can provide for themselves. The multiculturalist lobby there is also strong and well funded. It’s all about the economy, once the immigrant position will be perceived as nonviable then they would leave the West as well.

MaryJ said...

I imagine non-Muslim countries would crack down hard on immigration. The multi-culti paradigm will break down and rejection of Muslim immigration will be seen as a matter of survival.
You'd think, but that's not the way it'll turn out in the end. Look at India as an example -- they have a huge problem with illegal immigration from the Islamic paradises of Pakistan and Bangladesh. But even then, with all the suffering that Islam has caused the Indians, there are still a very vocal crowd of Marxists and liberals in that country that screams, "Let them in, let them in!"

Anonymous said...

It's like "an Islamic Israel" to the West. Any one else sees the irony in this? It has always been a "population" war. Also, I don't like the racism, not all Muslims are Arabs.