Friday, September 04, 2009
Who will be left standing in Eurabia?
Some observers think that Europe is destined for civil war as Muslim birth rates (immigration is only the rocket launcher; fecundity is the fuel) bring Islam into majority or near-majority status. At that point, the theory is, the indigenes will suddenly realize that their backs are to the wall, their governments have sold them out, and their only choice is fighting or dhimmitude.
What seems to me more likely is that Europe will be divided between Muslim and decidedly non-Muslim countries in close, uncomfortable proximity; not unlike communist and capitalist (or democratic socialist) countries in the Cold War. EU or no EU, Europe is anything but united at any level other than the international cadre of professional politicians. European tribes and nations have had all the years since the break-up of the western Roman Empire to learn to dislike one another. And that's only when they weren't trying to rip each other's lungs out, which happened as recently as the cataclysm that began 70 years ago. Some people alive today can remember it. Europe won't "fall." It will fracture.
There's no way to know for sure, obviously, but it's interesting to speculate on which European states will wind up on which side of the Muslim-non-Muslim split by, let's say, 2025. Based on current trends, my guess would be that the teams will look something like this:
Sweden, Norway, Belgium, the Netherlands: How can you doubt it?
Britain, France, Spain: Not as certain, but considering their track record to date, they'll go along to get along. Britain in particular has created a society of government dependents I can't imagine fighting for anything. They'll grumble, but do what they're told.
Italy: Knowing what I know of Italians, they'll take a stand and win. They gave Savonarola about three years, if I recall my Renaissance history, before they tired of the bonfire of the vanities. Even their own home-grown fascist Duce couldn't make them trade la dolce vita for efficiency. Italy is the only country in Europe making a serious effort to deport illegal immigrants. I don't think they're about to let a bunch of imams drape their women in black tents.
Denmark: My money is on this feisty little country, even when the EU does everything possible to sell it down the river.
Former Russian-satellite countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, et al.): They remember only too well what a grim totalitarian state feels like. They're not about to return to one.
Greece: Been there, done that. Greeks have a strong historical memory. The Turks were yesterday, Alkibiades was last week to them. Greece will become Muslim when snakes play soccer.
Iffy, could go either way
Finland: Doesn't seem to be quite the pushover that its Scandinavian neighbors are, but symptoms of dhimmi behavior are appearing.
Ireland: Hard to imagine Ireland as Muslim, but its political class has taken their tone from their British counterparts.
Scotland (which is almost certainly destined for independence from the U.K.): Another flaccid welfare state, but may still have some red corpuscles.
Switzerland: Too busy counting their money to be bothered about population replacement?
If you have a different prediction, I'd be happy for you to comment.